May 2007 Tessaleno Campos Devezas Personal Information Date of Birth: December 4, 1946 Place of Birth: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Citizenship: Brazilian and Portuguese Marital status: Married, 3 children Address: Rua de Acesso à Estação, Lote 1, 4º Esq., P-6200-494 Covilhã, Portugal. Telephones: Home - +351-275332299 Work - +351-275329926 Fax: +351-27532972 e-mail: tessalen@ubi.pt; tevand@sapo.pt (home)

Education

-B.Sc. in Physics, December 1969, Physics Institute of the University of Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

-MSc in Materials Science, December 1974, Army Engineering Institute, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

-Ph.D. in Materials Engineering, August 1981, Institut für Werkstoffwissenschaften der Friedrich-Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany. Dissertation: "Über das termisch-aktivierte Bruchverhalten von Aluminiumoxidkeramik"

Current Position/Research Interests

Associate Professor with Habilitation at the Department of Electromechanical Engineering, Universidade da Beira Interior (UBI), P-6200-001 Covilhã, Portugal, lecturing Materials Science and Engineering, Aeronautical Materials, New Materials and Technological Forecasting for undergraduate and graduate engineering students since July 1, 1992. Head of the Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group (TFIT-WG)

Main research interests: Technological Forecasting, Futures Studies, Socioeconomic Long Waves, Technological Evolution, Innovation Dynamics and New Materials.

International Memberships/Activities

- World Future Society

- World Futures Studies Federation

- International Kondratieff Foundation

- Member of RC 51- Research Committee on Sociocybernetics (ISA)

- Member of the Advisory Board - Elsevier’s Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Language skills

- Portuguese, Spanish, German and English - spoken, read and written.

Former Positions

- Senior researcher and lecturer at Politechnical Institute of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1990-1992)

- Senior researcher and lecturer at Aerospace Technical Center, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil (1983-1990).

- Member of the Advanced Ceramics Committee, Brazilian Ceramics Association, São Paulo, Brazil, (1988-1992).

- Technical Director, Hellas S.A. Trade and Industry, enterprise for the trade and development of alumina based advanced ceramics, São José dos Campos, Brazil (1988-1990)

- Director (owner), Quantum Materials Engineering Consultants, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil (1987-1990)

- Associate Professor, Army Engineering Institute, Dept. of Materials Science, Graduate Studies Program, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (1982 - 1983).

- Before earning the Ph.D. degree - assistant at University of Rio de Janeiro (Dept of Physics) lecturing Solid State Physics and Quantum Mechanics (1970 - 1974) and at Army Engineering Institute (Dept of Materials Science) lecturing Solid State Physics and Materials Science (1974 - 1976), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Projects Coordination at UBI

- Leader of the Technological Forecasting and Innovation Theory Working Group, integrating the team-like efforts of graduate students and undergraduate students.

- Leader of the Groups Materials and Aeronautical Structures and Technological Forecasting and Production and Industrial Management within the FCT’s Research Unity # 151 – Center for Innovation Science and Technology.

- Leader Researcher of Project “MIST” (Intelligent Materials with Stress Sensors- Program BASE), project finished in December of 1996.

- Leader Researcher of Project “SOMA” (Optical Sensors with Advanced Materials - Program STRIDE), project finished in August 1995.

- Leader Researcher of Project "OPTOSENSOR" (Program PRAXIS XXI), in collaboration with INESC-Porto, University of Porto and University of Aveiro, project finished in December 1998.

Advising Activities (Concluded)

- 8 M.Sc. thesis and 1 PhD thesis in the field of processing and mechanical properties of alumina based ceramics in Brazilian universities: 3 MSc at the Army Engineering Institute, Rio de Janeiro, 2 MSc and 1 PhD at the University of São Carlos, São Paulo, and 3 MSc at Aerospace Technical Center, São José dos Campos, São Paulo (between 1982 and 1991).

- 1 Diplomarbeit “Entwicklung und Perspektiven der globalen Energieversorgung”, Ing. Franz Scheck, Munich Technical University (European collaboration program Socrates-Erasmus), July 1995.

- M.Sc Thesis – “Study on the Strength Behavior of Intelligent Composite Material under Low Energy Impact”, UBI, Eng. Abílio Silva, December 1999.

- M.Sc. Thesis – “Flexure Behavior of Intelligent Composite Material”, UBI, Eng. Helder Correia, September 2000.

- M.Sc. Thesis – “Development of Alumina Based Monolitic Refractories with Low Content of Hydraulic Cement”, UBI, Eng. Nuno Salvado, December 2000.

- M.Sc. thesis - "Study of the Fatigue Behavior of Carbon-Epoxy Composites with embedded Optical Fibers", UBI and University of Coimbra, Eng. José Miguel Silva, December 2001.

- Ph.D. thesis - "Relativistic Analysis of the Information Content for Evaluation of Emergent Behaviors in Design", UBI, INETI and IADE, Eng. Carlos Duarte, December 2001.

- M.Sc. thesis - "The Growth Dynamics of the Internet", UBI, Eng. Humberto Santos, December 2001.

- Ph.D. thesis - "Construction of Future Scenarios for the Primary Energy Sources", UBI, Eng. João Matias, May 2003.

- Ph.D. thesis - "Study of Structural Bonding in Fiber Reinforced Polypropylene Composites", University of Coimbra, Eng. Paulo Reis, July 2003 (as co-adviser).

- M.Sc. Thesis – “Sectors and Factors for the Regional Development: Aplication of the Delphi Method to the case of the Ultraperipheric Regions of Macaronesia – Azores, Madeira and Canary Islands”, University of Azores, Eng. Luis Filipe Teves, April 2006.

- Ph.D. thesis - "Statistical Modeling of the Particle Size Composition of No-cement Alumina-based Self-Flowing Refractory Castables", UB, Eng. Abílio Silva, May 2006.

Current Advising Activities (4 students with not as yet concluded graduate studies)

- Ph.D. Thesis - "Characterisation and Quantification of Innovation in Industrial Design”, initiated in February 2002, UBI, Designer Ana Margarida Gomes Ferreira (to be concluded in 2007).

- Ph.D. Thesis –“Analysis and Simulation of Technological Innovation as an Evolutionary Process”, initiated in October 2002, UBI, Engº Humberto Santos (to be concluded in 2007).

- Ph.D. Thesis – “Innovation and Qualification of New Application Advantages of Cork-Thermoplastics Composites”, initiated in May 2007, Designer Joana Correia Ferreira.

Activities in Organizing International Congresses and Symposia

- International Workshop on Smart Materials, "SMART'93”, Organizing Committee, Chairman, University of Beira Interior, May 5-8, 1993, Covilhã, Portugal.

- International Symposium “Origin of the Intellect on the Earth”, Organizing Committee and Co-Chairman, May 15-18, 1997, Khabarovsk, Russia.

- Session on “Longwaves and Future Scenarios”, Chairman, 14th World Congress of Sociology, July 26 - August 1, 1998, Montreal, Canada.

- Participant/Contributor of the Millennium Project - 1997 STATE OF THE FUTURE REPORT - The United Nations University.

- International Symposium “Pitirim Sorokin and Sociocultural Tendencies of our Times”, Organizing Committee, February 3-6, 1999, Moscow, Russia.

- NATO Workshop on "Smart Materials and Aeroelasticity, Coordinator, UBI/Covilhã, May 3 - 6, 1999.

- 4th International Kondratieff Conference, Organizing Committee, May 14-17, 2001, Moscow, Russia.

- 1^st International Meeting of Design, Scientific Committee, IADE, Lisbon, September 25-26, 2003.

- NATO Advanced Research Workshop on “Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security”, Director, Covilhã, Portugal, 14-18 February 2005.

- 2^nd International Meeting of Design (CUMULUS), Scientific Committee, IADE, Lisbon, May 26-29, 2005.

- Gulbenkian Seminar, “Globalization as Evolutionary Process – Modeling, Simulating, and Forecasting Social Change”, Director, held at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, sponsored by the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (Lisbon Portugal), April 6-8, 2006.

Awards/Mentions

- “Award BP Engineering”, best experimental work ABC 1987, April 1987, 31^st Brazilian Congress of Ceramics, Brasília, Brazil.

- “Award BP Engineering”, best experimental work ABC 1988, April 1988, 32^nd Brazilian Congress of Ceramics, Natal, RN, Brazil.

- Two Honor Mentions, 1985 and 1988, from the Brazilian Ceramic Association, for the best-published works in the periodical Cerâmica.

- "IIIº Trofeo Latino Americano de la Tradición de Calidad" as Technical Director of Hellas S.A. Trade and Industry, Rio de Janeiro, March 27, 1990.

- “Elsevier 2001 Prize for the Outstanding Paper”, awarded in February 2002 for the paper “The Biological Determinants of Long Wave Behavior in Socioeconomic Growth and Development” published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, volume 68, Number 1, pp. 1-58, September 2001.

- Awarded with the N.D. Kondratieff Medal 2004 by the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and the International Kondratieff Foundation (decided on 24 May 2004, conferral ceremony on 20 October 2004, at the 5^th Kondratieff Conference, Saint Petersburg, Russia).

- Awarded with the status of Honorary Member of the International Kondratieff Foundation, certificate conferred in February 18, 2005, at the closing ceremony of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on “Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security”.

- Honorable Mention by Elsevier Inc. to the paper “The Growth Dynamics of the Internet and Long Wave Theory” published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, volume 72, Number 8, pp. 913-935, October 2005 (this award is published in TF&SC 73(3), March 2006.

Visiting Positions/Given Lectures

- Moscow University of Consumer Cooperation, Far-Eastern Department, Khabarovsk, Russia, May 7 - 9, 1997 - Course on "Kondratieff Waves and Technological Development".

- Khabarovsk State Academy of Economics and Law, Khabarovsk, Russia, May 12 - 14, 1997 -Course on "Basic Innovations and Economic Cycles".

- Los Alamos National Laboratory - Computer and Computational Science Division - Complex Systems Modeling Group (CCS-3) - Sabbatical staying working in a project on Agent-based Modeling of Complex Socioeconomic Systems, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA, February-August 2002.

- Faculty of Economics, St. Petersburg State University, Lecture on Evolutionary Economics, October 21^st, 2004.

- International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria - Sabbatical staying working with the TNT Project (Transition to New Technologies), April-August 2005.

- Center for European Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., USA, talk “The Portuguese as System Builders in the XV^th-XVI^th centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System”, May 14^th, 2007.

- Department of Portuguese and Brazilian Affairs, Brown University, Providens, Rhode Island, USA, talk “The Portuguese as System Builders in the XV^th-XVI^th centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System”, May 16^th, 2007.

Publications/Periodicals/Book Chapters

- "Crystal Anisotropy of Superparamagnetic Particles as Measured by Resonance", Phys.Lett. 50A (1974) pp 137-138.

- "Estudos de Precipitados de Magnesioferrita em MgO através de Ressonância Magnética", Rev.Bras.Tecnol. 6 (1975) pp 169-171.

- " Ferrimagnetic Resonance Study of the Growthrate of Superparamagnetic Precipitates of Magnesioferrite in MgO", J.Am.Cer.Soc.59 (1976) pp 55-56.

- "Magnetic Anisotropy, Ionic Distribution and Composition of Magnesioferrite Precipitates in MgO: A Ferrimagnetic Resonance Study", Physica 86-88B (1977) pp 1237-1238.

- "The Resonance Anisotrpy Field of Superparamagnetic Particles", Physica 86-88B (1977) pp 1425-1426.

- "Anisotropia Magnética de Precipitados de Magnesioferrita em MgO", Ciência e Cultura 29 (1975) pp 1421-1423.

- "Anisotropy Field of Small Magnetic Particles as Measured by Resonance", J.App.Phys.49 (1978) pp 2466-2469

- "Sobre a Propagação Térmicamente Ativada de Trincas na Alumina", Cerâmica 29 (1983) pp 51-58.

- "Cerâmicas Especiais - Uma Nova Era", Cerâmica 29 (1983) pp 75-83.

- "Shape Anisotropy of Ultrafine Magnesioferrite Precipitates", J.of Magnetism and Magn.Mat.35 (1983) pp 121-122

- “Aktivierungsenthalpien und Mechanismen der Unterkritischen Rißausbreitung in Aluminiumoxidkeramiken", Zeitschrift .für Werkstofftechnik (Mat.Tech. and Testing) 15 (1984) pp 65-72

- "Cerâmicos Especiais Estruturais - 1a Parte: Oxidos Cerâmicos", ITA-Engenharia 6(3)(1985) pp 5-16.

- "Cerâmicos Especiais Estruturais - 2a Parte: Cerâmicas Covalentes", ITA-Engenharia 6(4)(1985) pp.5-14.

- "Efeito da Sílica como Aditivo na Produção da Alumina Sinterizada", Cerâmica 31 (1985) pp 111-122.

- "Emprego de Cerâmicas Especiais em Máquinas de Combustão Interna: Estado-da-Arte e Previsão Tecnológica", Cerâmica 31 (1985) pp 147-164.

- "Redução da Temperatura de Sinterização da Alumina Através da Adição de Nióbia", Cerâmica 32 (1986) pp 171-176.

- "Correlação de Ensaios Uniaxiais e Biaxiais para a Avaliação das Propriedades Mecânicas de Cerâmicas Avançadas", Cerâmica 33 (1987) pp 159-162.

- "Produção de Conjugados Cerâmicos Mulita-Zircônia por Reação "In Situ", Cerâmica 34 (1988) pp 14-16.

- "Projeto e Construção de um Equipamento para a Medida do Módulo de Elasticidade através do Método de Ressonância", Cerâmica 34 (1988) pp 98-103.

- "Desenvolvimento de uma Metodologia de Ensaios de KIc por Impressão Vickers", Cerâmica 35 (1989) pp 31-36.

- "Utilização da Nióbia como Aditivo para a Redução da Temperatura de Reação "In Situ" de Conjugados Mulita-Zircônia", Cerâmica 36 (1990) pp 29-31.

- "Estudo Comparativo para Ensaios de Tenacidade à Fratura em Cerâmicas de Alto Desempenho", Cerâmica 36 (1990) pp 105-108

- "Irradiadores Cerâmicos de Infravermelho Longínquo", Aquecimento Industrial 3 (1991) pp 26-31.

- “Market Penetration Forecasting for Advanced Ceramics: A Technological Substitution Model”, New Horizons for Materials, P.Vicenzini (Ed.), p. 779-786, Techna, Faenza, 1995.

- “The New Tecnological Paradigm”, Papers de Prospectiva 4 (1995) pp 29-46.

- "Materials Substitution: A Case Study for Advanced Ceramics", Industrial Ceramics 16 (1996) pp 41-53.

- “The Impact of Major Innovations: Guesswork or Forecasting”, Journal of Futures Studies 1, (1997) pp 33 - 50.

– “Kondratieff Waves Revisited”, Global Futures Bulletin 41, pp. 5-7, August 1997.

– “What do you Think the Future Might Be? What Kind of Future Would You Like to See?” Bulletin 8, Research Committee on Sociocybernetics, July 1999.

– “The Biological Determinants of Long Wave Behavior in Socioeconomic Growth and Development”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 68 (2001) pp.1-58.

- "The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems: An Informational Interpretation", Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69 (2002) pp.317-357.

- "Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners", Book Review, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69 (2002) pp.313-316.

- "Fatigue Damage of Carbon-Epoxy Laminates with Embedded Optical Fibers", Materials Science and Technology 19 (2003) pp 809-814.

- "Power Law Behavior and World System Evolution: a Millennial Learning Process”, LAUR 02-5221, Los Alamos National Laboratory, August 2002. Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70 (2003) pp.819-859.

-“Revolution Now! The New Scientific Basis”, Book Review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70 (2003) pp.579-582.

-“Nature’s Magic: Synergy in Evolution and the Fate of Humankind”, Book Review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) pp.653-660.

-“Optimization of the Packing Density of Alumina Powder Distributions using Statistical Analysis”, Cerâmica 80 (2004) pp. 345-354.

– “Mechanical Characterization of Composites with Embedded Optical Fibres”. Journal of Composite Materials 39 (2005) pp.1261-1281.

-“The International Handbook on Innovation”, Book review, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) pp.111-115.

-“The Growth Dynamics of the Internet and the Long Wave Theory”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) pp.913-935.

-“Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: State-of-the-Art and New Approaches”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) pp.1137-1152 (special issue on New Horizons and Challenges for Future Oriented Technology Analysis).

-“Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: Discussion on Missing Points and Promising Approaches”, IIASA IR-05-49 (20 pages), December 2005.

-“Statistical Modeling of the particle Size composition of an Alumina Matrix for No-cement Self-flowing Refractory Castables”, Materials Science Forum 514-516 (2006) pp 604-608.

-“Design of the Particle Size Composition of an Alumina Powder Matrix for Maximum Flowability and Minimum Water Content” - Materials Science Forum 530-531 (2006) pp 425-430

-“Particle Distribution Design in a Self-Flow Alumina Refractory Castable Without Cement, Advances in Science and Technology 45 (2006) pp.2260-2265.

- “The Singularity is Near”, opinion article on Ray Kurzweil’s September 2005 book, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73(2) (2006), pp 112-121.

-“The Portuguese as System Builders in the XV^th-XVI^th centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System” – Globalizations 3(4)(2006) pp.503-519.

- “Long Waves and Warfare: an Enduring Controversy”, in T.Devezas (Ed.), Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, pp. vii-ix, NATO Security Through Science Series, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2006.

-“The Emergence of Modern Terrorism”, in T.Devezas (Ed.), Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, pp. 245-252, NATO Security Through Science Series, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2006.

-“Techno-cultural Evolution: Cycles of Creation and Conflict”, Book review, American Journal of Human Biology 18 (2006) pp. 870-872.

- Consumption Dynamics of Primary Energy Sources: The Century of Alternative Energies”, Applied Energy 84 (2007) pp. 763-770.

-“Political Globalization is Global Political Evolution”, World Futures 63 (2007) pp. 1-16.

-“Energy Scenarios: Toward a New Energy Paradigm”, to be published in FUTURES (2007).

- “The Portuguese as System Builders in the XV^th-XVI^th centuries: Technological Innovation in Early Globalization”, in G. Modelski, T. Devezas and W.R. Thompson (Eds), Globalization as Evolutionary Process – Modeling Global Change, Routledge, London (to be published November 2007).

Publications/Proceedings/Participation in Conferences

- "Investigation of the Precipitation Kinetics of a Ceramic by Magnetic Resonance", Proceedings of IVth Interamerican Conference on Materials Technology, pp.143-145, Caracas, 1975.

- "Magnetic Resonance of Ultrafine Magnetic Particles", Proceedings of the 9th International Colloquium on Magnetic Films and Surfaces, pp.88-89, Poznan, Poland, 1979.

- "Estudo dos Danos Provocados por Choque Térmico e sua Recuperação em Cerâmicas de Alto Teor de Alumina", Anais do 5º CBECIMAT, pg.537-550, Porto Alegre, 1982.

- "Materiais Cerâmicos para Aplicações Estruturais em Temperaturas Elevadas", Anais do Iº Encontro Nacional sôbre Análise de Componentes Estruturais para Temperaturas Elevadas (ACETE), LNCC, pg.241-282, Rio de Janeiro, 1983.

- "Cerâmicas Especiais em Motores - Estado-da- Arte", Anais do Iº Encontro sôbre Novos Materiais para a Industria Automotiva, Associação Brasileira de Engenharia Automotiva (ABEA), São Paulo, 1987

- Produção de Conjugados Cerâmicos Mulita-Zircônia por Reação "In Situ"", Anais do 31º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.15-27, Brasília, 1987.

- "Correlação de Ensaios Uniaxiais e Biaxiais para Avaliação de Propriedades Mecânicas de Cerâmicas Avançadas", Anais do 31º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.521-532, Brasília, 1987.

- "Metodologia para a Determinação da Densidade de Corpos Cerâmicos de Baixa Porosidade", Anais do 31º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg 533-539, Brasília, 1987.

- "Projeto e Construção de um Protótipo de Forno de Sinterização para Temperaturas até 1800ºC", Anais do 31º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.540-553, Brasília, 1987.

- "Utilização da Nióbia como Aditivo para a Redução da Temperatura de Reação "In Situ" de Conjugados Mulita-Zircônia", Anais do 32º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg 126-140, Natal, 1988.

- "Projeto e Construção de um Equipamento para a Medida do Módulo de Elasticidade através do Método de Ressonância", Anais do 32º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.380-402, Natal, 1988.

- "Estudo Comparativo para Ensaios de Tenacidade à Fratura em Cerâmicas de Alto Desempenho", Anais do 32º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.403-421, Natal, 1988.

- "Desenvolvimento de uma Metodologia de Ensaios de KIc por Impressão Vickers, Anais do 32º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, pg.422-432, Natal, 1988.

- "Reducing the Firing Temperature of Alumina Ceramics Through the Addition of Niobia", Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Ceramic Powder Processing Science, pp. 80-89, Berchtesgaden, Germany, 1988.

- "Conjugados Cerâmicos CeO2-ZrO2", Anais do 8º CBECIMAT, pg.468-470, Campinas, 1988.

- "Sinterabilidade da Alumina Resultante da Redução Aluminotérmica do Nb2O5", Anais do 8º CBECIMAT, pg.541-544, Campinas, 1988.

- "Advanced Ceramics and the Cycles of the World Economy", Proceedings of the 1^st Seminar Florida-Brazil, pg.85-122, Rio de Janeiro, 1989.

- "Conjugados Cerâmicos no Sistema Al2O3-ZrO2-CeO2", Anais do 9º CBECIMAT, pg 438-444, Águas de São Pedro, S.P., 1990.

- “Sobre a Tenacidade à Fractura de Cerâmicas Avançadas à Temperatura Ambiente”, Actas das 5ª Jornadas de Fractura da Sociedade Portuguesa de Materiais, Lisboa, April 11 - 12, 1994.

- “Innovations and Economic Cycles”, Proceedings of the Symposium Research, Innovation and Development”, UBI, Covilhã, January 26-27, 1995.

- “The Long Waves Debate: Some Open Questions”, International Symposium “Science, Education and Culture at the Threshold of the New Millenium”, Moscow, March 13-15, 1996.

- “From Smart Materials to Intelligent Structures: A Future Survey”, 8th General Meeting of the World Future Society”, Washington D.C., July 14-18, 1996.

- “On the Evolution of Techno-Economic Systems: Free Will or Determinism?”, Joint Meeting of the EASST/4S - Signatures of Knowledge Societies, October 9-13, 1996, Bielefeld, Germany.

- “The Edges of Change”, Proceedings of International Symposium Origin, Development and Future of Reason on Earth, Khabarovsk, Russia, May 1997, pp.113-126.

– “A Previsão Tecnológica Dentro do Contexto do Moderno Sistema Sócio-Económico”, Anais do 1º Encontro Nacional de Engenharia e Gestão Industrial, Lisboa, June 1997.

- “Propriedades Mecânicas de Compósitos Inteligentes com a Incorporação de Sensores Ópticos”, Actas das 6ª^s Jornadas de Fractura da SPM, Porto, February 10 - 11, 1998.

- “The Long Waves Phenomenon: New Insights”, Sociological Abstracts p. 93, ISA XIVth World Congress, Montreal, July 26-August 1, 1998.

- “Global Cycle of Human Civilization”, Sociological Abstracts p. 190, ISA XIVth World Congress, Montreal, July 26-August 1, 1998.

- “Diffusion-Learning Subsystems Dynamics: A New Approach to Explain Long Waves in Socioeconomic Development”, International Conference Sociocybernetics Bridges between the Past, Present and Future, Kolimbari, Crete, May 26-31, 1999.

- “Estudo do Impacto em Compósitos Inteligentes com Fibras Ópticas Integradas”, Proceedings do 9º Encontro da Sociedade Portuguesa de Materiais (Materiais 99), pg. 365 - 370, Universidade do Minho, Guimarães, June 1999.

– “Impact Behavior of Smart Composite Materials”, 50^th International Astronautical Congress, Amsterdam, October 1999, Paper IAF – 99 – I.5.10.

– “Comportamento Mecânico em Flexão dos Compósitos Carbono/Resina Epoxídica com Fibras Ópticas Incorporadas”, 7ªs Jornadas de Fractura, Covilhã/UBI, February 2000, Livro das Comunicações pg. 230 – 237.

– “Resistência ao Impacto de Compósitos com a Inserção de Fibras Ópticas”, 7ªs Jornadas de Fractura, Covilhã/UBI, February 2000, Livro das Comunicações pg. 238-247.

– “Learning Dynamics of Technological Progress”, Second International Conference on Sociocybernetics, June 24 - 30, 2000, Panticosa, Spain.

– “The Biological Determinants of Long Wave Behavior in Socioeconomic Long Waves in Socioeconomic Growth and Development”, World Congress of the System Sciences, Toronto, July 16 - 19, 2000 (also published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change).

- "The Causality of Long Waves", IVth International Kondratieff Conference, Moscow, May 15 - 19, 2001.

- "Cycles: Patterned Repetition or Chaotic Behavior", 21st International Symposium on Forecasting", Callaway Gardens, Atlanta, GA, USA, June 17- 20, 2001.

- "Previsão de Longo Prazo para as Fontes de Energia Primária", Engenharia 2001-Inovação e Desenvolvimento, Covilhã, Novembro de 2001, Livro das Comunicações pg. 151-156.

- "Estudo do Comportamento à Fadiga de Laminados Carbono-Epoxy com Fibras Ópticas Embebidas", Engenharia 2001-Inovação e Desenvolvimento, Covilhã, Novembro de 2001, Livro das Comunicações pg. 331-340.

- "A Contribuição da Substituição de Energia Primária para a Redução da Intensidade Carbónica", 1ª^s Jornadas Politécnicas de Engenharia, Leiria, 14-16 de Novembro de 2001.

-"Fatigue Behavior of Carbon-Epoxy Laminates with Embedded Optical Fibers", 8ªs Jornadas de Fractura, Vila Real/UTAD, Fevereiro de 2002, Livro das Comunicações pg. 371-378.

-"Aggregate Output Model Describing the Limit-cycle Behavior of a Logistic Growing Process", International Conference on Complex Systems (ICCS 2002), Nashua, NH, USA, June 9-14, 2002.

- "Study of the Influence of Particle Size Distribution on the Self-flowing Property of Refractory Castables", Encontro RPD 2002 (Rapid Product Development), Moulds Event 2002, Marinha Grande, Oliveira de Azeméis, October 6-11, 2002.

- "Análise e Interpretação da Dinâmica do Crescimento da Internet",2ª^s Jornadas Politécnicas de Engenharia, Escola Superior de Tecnologia de Setúbal, Setúbal, November 13-14, 2002.

- "Consumption Dynamics of the Primary Energy Sources: The Technological and Socio-economic Contexts", ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, Côte d'Azur, França, June 2-7, 2003.

– “Relações entre a Distribuição Granulométrica, Morfologia e Empacotamento de Partículas em um Sistema Real: Alta-Alumina”, Anais do 47º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, João Pessoa, PB, Brasil, June 15-18, 2003.

- “The Paths of Design: Socioeconomic Indicators”, Proceedings of the 1^st International Meeting of Design, IADE, Lisbon, September 25-26, 2003.

-“Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: State-of-the-Art and New Approaches”, EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, May 2004.

-“Optimization of the Packing Density of Alumina Powders using Statistical Techniques”, Anais do 48º Congresso Brasileiro de Cerâmica, Curitiba, PR, Brasil, 28 de Junho-1º de Julho de 2004.

- “O Crescimento da Internet e os Ciclos Longos da Economia Mundial: Evidência Empírica de uma Economia Evolucionária”, Directions’2004, IT Governance and Businees Value, Lisbon, October 12-13, 2004.

-“Evolutionary Framework for the Study of Global Social Change: From K-waves to World System”, Proceedings of the Vth International Kondratieff Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, October 19-22, 2004, pp. 113-132.

-“The Emergence of Modern Terrorism”, NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Kondratieff Waves, Warfare, and World Security”, Covilhã, Portugal, February 14-18, 2005.

- “Design of the particle size composition of an alumina powder matrix for maximum flowability and minimum water content”, Fifth International Congress on Powder Technology – Ptech, Salvador, Brazil, October 26-29, 2005.

- “Modelação Estatística da Reologia a Seco de Sistemas de Partículas de Alumina” Congresso UBI- Engenharias, November 21-23, 2005.

-“Optimização da Distribuição Granulométrica da Composição do Agregado para um Betão Refractário de Alumina Auto-Escoante Sem Cimento”, Congresso UBI-Engenharias, November 21-23, 2005.

- “The Portuguese as System Builders in the XV^th-XVI^th centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System”, Gulbenkian Seminar Globalization as Evolutionary Process, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, April 6-8, 2006.

-“Design of Self-Flow Alumina Refractory Castable Composition Without Cement”, Proceedings of the 11st International Ceramic Congress, CIMTEC, Paper Number J-8.1: L04, Acireale, Sicily, Italy, June 4-9, 2006.

-“Portugal: O Pioneiro da Globalização – Modelo para Agenda Futura”, Seminário itSMF, Inovação em Portugal, Cooperar para Competir, 23 Novembro 2006.

-“Portugal: O Pioneiro da Globalização – Inovação e Estratégia na História Moderna, Cisco Expo 2007, Estoril, Lisboa, 22 Maio 2007.

-“ The Evolutionary Trajectory of the World System Toward an Age of Transition”, Systemic Transition Conference, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA, May 11-13, 2007.

Publications/Books

- Kondratieff Waves, Warfare and World Security, Editor, NATO Security Through Science Series, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2006.

- Portugal: o Pioneiro da Globalização – Inovação e Estratégia na História Moderna, com Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, Centro Atlântico, Lisboa, Maio 2007.

- Globalization as Evolutionary Process – Modeling Global Change, G. Modelski, T. Devezas and W.R. Thompson (Eds), Routledge, London (to be published November 2007).